Monkeys 'display self-doubt' like humans | |||
 Monkeys trained to play computer games have helped to show that it is not just humans that feel self-doubt and uncertainty, a study says. US-based scientists found that macaques will "pass" rather than risk choosing the wrong answer in a brainteaser task. Awareness of our own thinking was believed to be a uniquely human trait. But the study, presented at the AAAS meeting in Washington DC, suggests that our more primitive primate relatives are capable of such self-awareness. Professor John David Smith, from State University of New York at Buffalo and Michael Beran, from Georgia State University, carried out the study.
They trained the macaques, which are Old World monkeys, to use a joystick-based computer game. The animals were trained to judge the density of a pixel box that appeared at the top of the screen as either sparse or dense. To give their answer, the monkeys simply moved a cursor towards a letter S or a letter D. When the animals chose the correct letter, they were rewarded with an edible treat. There was no punishment for choosing the wrong answer, but the game briefly paused, taking away - for a few seconds - the opportunity for the animals to win another treat. But the monkeys had a third option - choosing a question mark - which skipped the trial and moved on to the next one. This meant no treat, but it also meant no pause in the game. The scientists saw that the macaques used this option in exactly the same way as human participants who reported that they found a trial too tricky to answer; they chose to "pass" and move on. Dr Smith presented footage of the animals playing the game at a session that was organised by the European Science Foundation. "Monkeys apparently appreciate when they are likely to make an error," he told BBC News. "They seem to know when they don't know." In the same trial, capuchins, which belong to the group known as New World monkeys, failed to take this third option. Dr Smith explained: "There is a big theoretical question at stake here: Did [this type of cognition] develop only once in one line of the primates - emerging only in the line of Old World primates leading to apes and humans?" http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_news/newsid_9401000/9401945.stm | |||
Friday 28 January 2011
Half of us believe in the Hereafter... and 1 in 5 want to talk to Diana
By Daily Mail ReporterLast updated at 9:00 AM on 28th January 2011
More than half of Britons believe in life after death and two in five believe in angels. Some 53 per cent believe in psychic powers and the possibility of life after death, a survey reveals. One in five say they have seen a ghost or felt the presence of a spirit while two in five believe in ‘guardian angels’.
Many people believe they have seen the ghost or felt the spirit of a close friend or relative who has passed away. Two in five say they want to speak to dead relatives and one in five has visited a medium or psychic to help them do so – spending an average of £31 per visit.
Almost two in five adults believe someone in their family is gifted with psychic ability. A third of the nation describe themselves as ‘spiritual’ but only a quarter claim to be ‘religious’, according to the study carried out for the Clint Eastwood film Hereafter.
However, a third of the nation still believes in heaven and a fifth believes they will be reincarnated when they pass away. One in five British adults would also love to have a conversation with the former Princess of Wales. Albert Einstein came second in the online poll of 3,000 adults, followed by Marilyn Monroe and Freddie Mercury. Seven per cent of us want to chat to Adolf Hitler.
Tuesday 18 January 2011
Fox 'may have been prehistoric man's best friend'
By Daily Mail ReporterLast updated at 8:43 AM on 28th January 2011
Early man may have preferred the fox as a pet rather than dogs, new findings suggest. Researchers analysing remains at a prehistoric burial ground in Jordan have uncovered a grave in which a fox was buried with a human, dated thousands of years before dogs were kept as companions.
The cemetery, at Uyun-al-Hammam, in northern Jordan, is about 16,500 years old, which makes the grave 4,000 years older than the earliest known human-dog burial. However, the close relationship between man and fox was probably short-lived. Writing in the journal, PLoS One, published today, the researchers say it is unlikely foxes were ever fully domesticated and, despite their early head start, humans took to the more companionable dog for pets as time went on.
Prairie dogs have a language all of their own and 'can describe what humans look like'
Rodent species: Prairie dogs - only found in North America - call out to warn their friends when a predator approaches their habitat, scientists believe
By Graham Smith , Mail Online
Last updated at 5:49 PM on 21st January 2011
It's a language that would twist the tongue of even the most sophisticated linguist. Prairie dogs talk to each other and can describe what different human beings look like, according to scientists. The species - only found in North America - call out to warn their friends when a predator approaches their habitat.
The prairie dog's barks, yips and chirping sounds are really a sophisticated form of communication that contains a vocabulary of at least 100 words, Professor Slobodchikoff claims. 'The little yips prairie dogs make contain a lot of information,' he said. 'They can describe details of predators such as their size, shape, colour and how fast they are going. They also can discriminate whether an approaching animal is a coyote or a dog, and they can decipher different types of birds.'
Professor Slobodchikoff and his students hid themselves in prairie dog villages and recorded the noises the rodents made whenever a human, hawk, dog or coyote passed through. What they found was that the prairie dog issues different calls depending on the intruder. The researchers discovered this by analysing the recorded calls for frequency and tone.
They concluded that it doesn't have one call for 'danger', rather it has a collection of warning noises - or a language. To further develop this line of investigation, Professor Slobodchikoff gathered four volunteers and had them walk through a prairie dog village four times. On each occasion they wore the same clothing, except for different colour shirts.
The prairie dogs responded by issuing different calls, depending on the colour of the volunteers' shirts. Professor Slobodchikoff then discovered they also issued different calls for varying heights, and even for abstract shapes including cardboard circles, squares and triangles. He told NPR: 'Essentially they were saying, "Here comes the tall human in the blue," versus, "Here comes the short human in the yellow."'
Friday 14 January 2011
Unlucky for some: How hitherto unknown 13th sign of zodiac Ophiuchus could be why your stars never seem right
By Daniel Bates, Mail Online
Last updated at 12:05 AM on 15th January 2011
- Horoscope horror because Earth has 'wobbled' out of alignment with the moon
- Most who thought they were Virgo are actually Leo - but only in the East
The ancient Babylonians based zodiac signs on the constellation the sun was ‘in’ on the day a person was born. But during the thousands of years since, the moon's gravitational pull has made the Earth shift on its axis and created a one-month shift in the stars' alignment. Astronomers are now proposing to move all the star signs back one month and introduce a 13th star sign, Ophiuchus, to help readjust the zodiac calendar.
The change will come as a shock to many who will discover they have been reading the wrong star sign their entire lives - and will not necessarily be happy with their new ones. Those under dominant and creative Leo could now find themselves a Cancer, which means they are moody and sensitive. A passionate Scorpio could become a more diplomatic and balanced Libra whilst if you were a Taurus, you could now find yourself a stubborn Aires.
The change was suggest by Professor Parke Kunkle, who teaches astronomy at Minneapolis Community and Technical College. Astronomers study space and the stars from a scientific viewpoint whilst astrologers write horoscopes and claim that celestial bodies can give clues to personality traits.
Professor Kunkle said that those who read theirstar signs could have been reading the wrong one their whole lives and should readjust accordingly. ‘When astrologers say that the sun is in Pisces, it's really not in Pisces,’ he said.
STAR WARS: REVENGE OF THE SIGN
There are two major systems that control our zodiac signs - tropical astrology and sidereal astrology. Tropical astrology is based on Earth's relationship with the Sun and the four seasons. It preserves the seasonal associations of the star signs worked out by early astrologers by laying out new horoscopes against a first-millennium sky.
‘Historically, people looked at the sky to understand the world around us. But today I don't think people who are into astrology look at the sky very much.’ The signs of the zodiac have roots in mythology and relate to the legend of how the 12 Olympian gods took animal shapes to flee the monster Typhon who was causing havoc on Earth. They date back to Roman and Babylonian times and are based on the ecliptic, which is the path of the sun over the celestial sphere, or imaginary path around the Earth for a year.
In the beginning your star sign was indeed determined by the constellation in the sky that the sun lined up with at the time of your birth. Since then, however, astrologers have adopted a mathematically equal division of the sky, so the position of the constellations is no longer relevant.
The proposed 13th star sign, Ophiuchus, is a constellation in space and existing prints of its symbol indicate it is a heavily muscled individual holding a snake to the sky. Those born under Ophiuchus are said to have lofty ideals, enjoy longevity and are inventive. Those who are currently Scorpio or Saggitarius could make the switch.
The Earth 'wobbles' on its axis, so the star constellations we see change over a cycle of 26,000 years. So it is irrelevant that the solsticial points (tropics) have drifted from one constellation to another over time as the relationship is symbolic.
Tropical astrology is mainly practised in North America and Europe. The alternative is Sidereal astrology which is the Hindu system and is also practised by some western astrologers. It is based on Earth's relationship with the stars and therefore zodiac signs against the actual sky.
An adjustment is made for the 'precession of the vernal equinox'. This is the gradual shift in the orientation of Earth's axis of rotation, which traces out a cone once every 26,000 years. Therefore the dates of the zodiac signs change.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1347140/Horoscope-change-2011-Sidereal-astrology-reveals-13th-OPHIUCHUS-zodiac-sign.html#ixzz1B3gOy856
Extra Sensory Perception: a brief history
The concept of Extra Sensory Perception has been around for more than a century but was only popularised in the 1930s.
1870 – Term 'Extra Sensory Perception' allegedly coined by the British explorer Sir Richard Burton.
1882 – 'Telepathy' – mind reading – formally introduced after research undertaken by the Society of Psychical Research in Britain, and in 1884 by similar organisations in the US.
1892 – Dr Paul Joire, a French researcher used the term ESP to describe the ability of a person who had been hypnotised or was in a trance-like state to sense things without using ordinary senses.
1930s – Duke University psychology JB Rhine popularises the term to denote psychic abilities such as telepathy and clairvoyance. Rhine and his wife Louisa tried to develop research into "parapsychology". They used a set of cards, originally called Zener Cards, now called ESP cards, which bear the symbols of a circle, square, wavy lines, cross and a star. There are five cards of each in a pack of 25. In an experiment, the "sender" looks at a series of cards while the "receiver" guesses the symbols.
Rhine argued that when his subjects scored highly, it could only be expect by chance once in a thousand.
The experiments faced several criticisms, namely that the statistics were not reliable, that only favourable results were published and that "fraud" was possible. Computers are now being used to determine ESP.
1940 – Rhine, JG Pratt and others at Duke author a review of card-guessing experiments conducted since 1882 – 'Extra-Sensory Perception After Sixty Years', which becomes recognised as the first meta-analysis in science. More than 60 per cent of the results indicate the presence of ESP ability.
1953 – Report by Rhine on the ability of dogs to detect landmines through ESP. After a training period of more than three months, two dogs in California successfully found mines six out of seven times without any sensory cues.
1964 – Scientists demonstrate that through use of hypnosis, there is a success rate of 64 per cent.
1971 – Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Dean Mitchell allegedly conducted secret ESP experiments during the mission with collaborators on Earth. Following 'sleep time' on the ship, he concentrated on a series of symbols and shapes on a clipboard. Four men on Earth tried to 'receive' them.
1974 – Ganzfeld test findings published by Charles Honorton and Sharon harper in the Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. The 30-minute procedure involves two subjects, one the sender and the other the receiver. Both persons lie on chairs, eyes covered with halved ping pong balls so the visual field was solid white. White noise was played in the background. Subjects were asked to free-associate out loud while their responses were put on to a magnetic tape. In another room, the telepathic sender chose at random a set of slides to look at and try to send the subject. After the experiment, the subject was asked to guess which of the reels, of a group of four, had been the target.
1984 – Test results from 10 different laboratories find superior results. Hypnosis proved to enhance ESP ability more than anything else.
1988 – Psychologist Gertrude Schmeidler finds that higher scores are obtained when the experimenter was warmer and friendly to the subject than a cold, formal one. Dr Schmeidler, in her research, also divided subjects into "sheep", who believed ESP might work, and "goats", who did not. Her studies found that "sheep" scores were generally above expectation and "goats" scored below.
2011 – Academic paper argues that people may be able to see into the future to be published by the respected Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Prof Daryl Bem of Cornell University, said the results of nine experiments he carried on students over the past decade suggested humans could accurately predict random events.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8244695/Extra-Sensory-Perception-a-brief-history.html
But the scientific community is filled with grumbles over Bem's work. Many researchers question the wisdom of writing, much less publishing, research on humans' ability to see the future.
Now retired from a long career of mainstream psychological research, Bem says he started looking at ESP for fun, then began to take it more seriously. Over an eight-year period, he says he conducted experiments with more than 1,000 volunteers on "precognition" -- the ability to perceive things before they actually happen -- and submitted it to The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, a peer-reviewed journal published by the American Psychological Association. The reviewers went over it and accepted it for an upcoming issue, despite some initial skepticism.
"It is not my job to decide what hypotheses are good or bad," said Charles Judd, a professor at the University of Colorado who has been serving as the journal's editor. "It's our responsibility to look at papers and give them a fair hearing, even if they fly in the face of conventional wisdom."
Judd provided ABC News with the text of an editorial that will run along with Bem's paper: "We openly admit that the reported findings conflict with our own beliefs about causality and that we find them extremely puzzling," it says in part. "Yet, as editors we were guided by the conviction that this paper — as strange as the findings may be — should be evaluated just as any other manuscript on the basis of rigorous peer review."
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/extrasensory-perception-scientific-journal-esp-paper-published-cornell/story?id=12556754
The experiments faced several criticisms, namely that the statistics were not reliable, that only favourable results were published and that "fraud" was possible. Computers are now being used to determine ESP.
1940 – Rhine, JG Pratt and others at Duke author a review of card-guessing experiments conducted since 1882 – 'Extra-Sensory Perception After Sixty Years', which becomes recognised as the first meta-analysis in science. More than 60 per cent of the results indicate the presence of ESP ability.
1953 – Report by Rhine on the ability of dogs to detect landmines through ESP. After a training period of more than three months, two dogs in California successfully found mines six out of seven times without any sensory cues.
1964 – Scientists demonstrate that through use of hypnosis, there is a success rate of 64 per cent.
1971 – Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Dean Mitchell allegedly conducted secret ESP experiments during the mission with collaborators on Earth. Following 'sleep time' on the ship, he concentrated on a series of symbols and shapes on a clipboard. Four men on Earth tried to 'receive' them.
1974 – Ganzfeld test findings published by Charles Honorton and Sharon harper in the Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. The 30-minute procedure involves two subjects, one the sender and the other the receiver. Both persons lie on chairs, eyes covered with halved ping pong balls so the visual field was solid white. White noise was played in the background. Subjects were asked to free-associate out loud while their responses were put on to a magnetic tape. In another room, the telepathic sender chose at random a set of slides to look at and try to send the subject. After the experiment, the subject was asked to guess which of the reels, of a group of four, had been the target.
1984 – Test results from 10 different laboratories find superior results. Hypnosis proved to enhance ESP ability more than anything else.
1988 – Psychologist Gertrude Schmeidler finds that higher scores are obtained when the experimenter was warmer and friendly to the subject than a cold, formal one. Dr Schmeidler, in her research, also divided subjects into "sheep", who believed ESP might work, and "goats", who did not. Her studies found that "sheep" scores were generally above expectation and "goats" scored below.
2011 – Academic paper argues that people may be able to see into the future to be published by the respected Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Prof Daryl Bem of Cornell University, said the results of nine experiments he carried on students over the past decade suggested humans could accurately predict random events.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8244695/Extra-Sensory-Perception-a-brief-history.html
ESP Study Gets Published in Scientific Journal
Cornell University Psychologist Daryl Bem Writes Paper on Precognition
Jan. 6, 2011
Daryl Bem is a Cornell University psychologist who says he's been doing magic as a hobby since he was 17. Now he has managed what some scientists may call his greatest trick: he's written a paper attempting to prove the power of ESP -- extrasensory perception -- and had it accepted for publication in a major scientific journal. "From seeing my own data, and from looking at other research on ESP, I think I could be classified as someone who now believes there's something there," Bem said in an interview with ABCNews.com. But the scientific community is filled with grumbles over Bem's work. Many researchers question the wisdom of writing, much less publishing, research on humans' ability to see the future.
Now retired from a long career of mainstream psychological research, Bem says he started looking at ESP for fun, then began to take it more seriously. Over an eight-year period, he says he conducted experiments with more than 1,000 volunteers on "precognition" -- the ability to perceive things before they actually happen -- and submitted it to The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, a peer-reviewed journal published by the American Psychological Association. The reviewers went over it and accepted it for an upcoming issue, despite some initial skepticism.
"It is not my job to decide what hypotheses are good or bad," said Charles Judd, a professor at the University of Colorado who has been serving as the journal's editor. "It's our responsibility to look at papers and give them a fair hearing, even if they fly in the face of conventional wisdom."
Judd provided ABC News with the text of an editorial that will run along with Bem's paper: "We openly admit that the reported findings conflict with our own beliefs about causality and that we find them extremely puzzling," it says in part. "Yet, as editors we were guided by the conviction that this paper — as strange as the findings may be — should be evaluated just as any other manuscript on the basis of rigorous peer review."
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/extrasensory-perception-scientific-journal-esp-paper-published-cornell/story?id=12556754
Friday 7 January 2011
A curse on taxes! Furious witches in Romania cast spells against government as they have to pay state for first time
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 10:59 AM on 7th January 2011
Everyone curses the taxman but Romanian witches furious about having to pay up for the first time have used cat excrement and dead dogs to cast spells on the president and government.
Also among Romania's newest taxpayers are fortune tellers - but they probably should have seen it coming.
Superstitions are no laughing matter in Romania - the land of the medieval ruler who inspired the Dracula tale - and have been part of its culture for centuries. Romanian witches from the east and west headed to the southern plains and the Danube River yesterday to threaten the government with spells and spirits because of the tax law, which came into effect on January 1.
A dozen witches hurled the poisonous mandrake plant into the Danube to put a hex on government officials 'so evil will befall them', said a witch named Alisia. 'This law is foolish. What is there to tax, when we hardly earn anything?' she said. 'The lawmakers don't look at themselves, at how much they make, their tricks; they steal and they come to us asking us to put spells on their enemies.'
The new law is part of the government's drive to collect more revenue and crack down on tax evasion in a country in recession. In the past, the less mainstream professions of witch, astrologer and fortune teller were not listed in the Romanian labour code, as were those of embalmer, valet and driving instructor and they used their lack of registration to evade paying income tax.
But under the new law, like any self-employed person, they will pay 16 per cent income tax and make contributions to health and pension programmes. Some argue the law will be hard to enforce, as the payments to witches and astrologers usually are made in cash and relatively small at £4.50-£6.50 a consultation.
Mircea Geoana, who lost the presidential race to Mr Basescu in 2009, performed poorly during a crucial debate and his camp blamed attacks of negative energy by their opponent's aides.
Geoana aide Viorel Hrebenciuc claimed there was a 'violet flame' conspiracy during the campaign, saying Mr Basescu and other aides dressed in purple on Thursdays to increase his chance of victory. They continue to be seen wearing purple clothing on important days, because the colour supposedly makes the wearer superior and wards off evil.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1344940/A-curse-taxes-Furious-witches-Romania-cast-spells-government-pay-state-time.html#ixzz1AMOeW2Zc
Thursday 6 January 2011
Experts call for global action on harmful cults
China Daily, December 4, 2010
Researchers at an international symposium on cult studies called for global coordination in combating threats posed by destructive groups.
"Destructive cult groups study the law, they evade regulations, they update their communication techniques and they evolve quickly," said Pierre Picquart, an expert on China from the University of Paris.
Picquart was among 21 scholars in the fields of religion, history, psychology, law and ethics from home and abroad who spoke at the two-day symposium sponsored by the Institute of Religious Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
Although concepts and definitions of cults differed in many countries, Picquart said, most destructive cult groups represented a danger to individual liberty, health, education, social institutions and governments to the benefit of the cult leaders who gained wealth and power.
Ye Luhua, a researcher from the Institute of Religious Studies, also noted that the activities of cults were becoming rampant in some places around the world.
It was also a problem in China, which faced groups from overseas as well as those inside the country such as Falun Gong, which was identified as a destructive cult group by the government and was banned in 1999, Ye said.
Ye suggested the government should improve the functioning of community groups and organizations so that people, especially the migrant population, could settle down rather than feel lost - a feeling that could prompt them to seek support from cults.
David Clark, a cult intervention specialist from the United States, pointed out in his paper that Falun Gong, founded by Li Hongzhi in China in the 1990s, was a typical destructive group that continued to deceive and harm people in the US.
Describing it as one of the most difficult groups he had faced during his career working with many families affected by cults, Clark said, "I have observed the growth of the Falun Gong in my own country where Li Hongzhi now lives. The central focus of Falun Gong was on religious and civil liberty issues. That ignored the real harm done by those who seek such protection under the banner of freedom."
Yan Kejia, director of the Institute of Religious Studies, told China Daily that the symposium aimed to provide a platform for scholars from around the world to share their views on cult trends and to seek effective countermeasures.
Hoaxes 'n' Spoofs
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Wiki: Hoax
This article is about false information. For the film, see The Hoax.
For the Wikipedia policy about false information, see Wikipedia:Do not create hoaxes.
A hoax is a deliberately fabricated falsehood made to masquerade as truth. [1] It is distinguishable from errors in observation or judgment, [1] or rumors and urban legends that are passed along in good faith by believers or as jokes. [2]
Contents:
1. Definition
2. Character of hoaxes
3. Hoax traditions
4. See also
5. References
6. Further reading
7. External links
1. Definition
Thomas Ady's A candle in the dark ... (1656) contains the earliest mention of hocus pocus, the origin of the word hoax. [3]
The British philologist Robert Nares (1753-1829) says that the word hoax was coined in the late 18th century as a contraction of the verb , which means "to cheat", [4] "to impose upon" [4] or "to befuddle often with drugged liquor". [5] Hocus is a shortening of the magic incantation hocus pocus, [5] which in turn is a contraction of the phrase Hocus pocus, tontus talontus, vade celeriter jubeo, mentioned in Thomas Ady's 1656 book A candle in the dark, or a treatise on the nature of witches and witchcraft. [3] According to the book, the Latin-like gibberish phrase was uttered by a conjuror to distract his audience from his sleight of hand. [3]
The term hoax is occasionally used in reference to urban legends and rumors, but the folklorist Jan Harold Brunvand argues that most of them lack evidence of deliberate creations of falsehood and are passed along in good faith by believers or as jokes, so the term should be used for only those with a probable conscious attempt to deceive. [2] As for the closely related terms practical joke and prank, Brunvand states that although there are instances they overlap, hoax tends to indicate "relatively complex and large-scale fabrications" and includes deceptions that go beyond the merely playful and "cause material loss or harm to the victim". [6]
According to Professor Lynda Walsh of the University of Nevada, Reno, some hoaxes—such as the Great Stock Exchange Fraud of 1814, labeled as a hoax by contemporary commentators—are financial in nature, and successful hoaxers—such as P. T. Barnum, whose Fiji mermaid contributed to his wealth—often acquire monetary gain or fame through their fabrications, so the distinction between hoax and fraud is not necessarily clear. [7] Alex Boese, the creator of the Museum of Hoaxes, states that the only distinction between them is the reaction of the public, because a fraud can be classified as a hoax when its method of acquiring financial gain creates a broad public impact or captures the imagination of the masses. [8]
One of the earliest recorded media hoaxes is a fake almanac published by Jonathan Swift under the pseudonym of Isaac Bickerstaff in 1708. [9] Swift predicted the death of John Partridge, one of the leading astrologers in England at that time, in the almanac and later issued an elegy on the day Partridge was supposed to have died. Partridge's reputation was damaged as a result and his astrological almanac was not published for the next six years. [9]
It is possible to perpetrate a hoax by making only true statements using unfamiliar wording or context, such as in the Dihydrogen monoxide hoax. Political hoaxes are sometimes motivated by the desire to ridicule or besmirch opposing politicians or political institutions, often before elections.
A hoax differs from a magic trick or from fiction (books, movies, theatre, radio, television, etc.) in that the audience is unaware of being deceived, whereas in watching a magician perform an illusion the audience expects to be tricked.
A hoax is often intended as a practical joke or to cause embarrassment, or to provoke social or political change by raising people's awareness of something.
A borderline case between fiction and hoax is a 1938 radio broadcast by Orson Welles describing a Martian invasion of earth. Many people who tuned in without hearing the introduction of the program as fiction were concerned that the invasion was real. It has been suggested that Welles knew the schedule of a popular program on another channel, and scheduled the first report of the invasion to coincide with a commercial break in the other program so that people switching channel would be tricked.
Governments sometimes spread false information to assist them with aims such as going to war; examples are the Ems telegram and the "dodgy (Iraq) dossier"; these often come under the heading of black propaganda. There is often a mixture of outright hoax and suppression and management of information to give the desired impression. In wartime and times of international tension rumours abound, some of which may be deliberate hoaxes.
Examples of politics related hoaxes:
- Belgium is a country with a Flemish- and a French-speaking region. In 2006 French-speaking television channel RTBF interrupted programming with a spoof report claiming that the country had split in two and the royal family had fled.
- On Saturday 13 March 2010 the Imedi television station in Georgia broadcast a false announcementRussia had invaded Georgia. that
2. Character of hoaxes
Hoaxes vary widely in their processes of creation, propagation, and entrenchment over time. These possess frequently one or more of the following:
- Hoaxes perpetrated on occasions when their initiation is considered socially appropriate, such as April Fools' Day
- Apocryphal claims that originate as a hoax, gain widespread belief among members of a culture or organization, become entrenched as persons who believe it repeat it in good faith to others, and continue to command that belief after the hoax's originators have died or departed
- Hoaxes that are not affirmatively propagated but rather indirectly "invited," as when persons fabricate evidence consistent with a false claim but do not advocate that claim as a conclusion, instead hoping that observers desiring to draw their own conclusions will reach an erroneous one and spread it in the belief that it is true, such as the use of disinformation in war and counterintelligence
- Hoaxes formed by making minor or gradually increasing changes to a warning or other claim widely circulated for legitimate purposes
- Hoaxes perpetrated by "scare tactics" appealing to the audience's subjectively rational belief that the expected cost of not believing the hoax (the cost if its assertions are true times the likelihood of their truth) outweighs the expected cost of believing the hoax (cost if false times likelihood of falsity), such as claims that a non-malicious but unfamiliar program on one's computer is malware
- Some urban legends and rumors with a probable conscious attempt to deceive [2]
- Humbugs
- Computer virus hoaxes became widespread as viruses themselves began to spread. A typical hoax is an email message warning recipients of a non-existent threat, usually quoting spurious authorities such as Microsoft and IBM. In most cases the payload is an exhortation to distribute the message to everyone in the recipient's address book. Sometimes the hoax is more harmful, e.g., telling the recipient to seek a particular file (usually in a Microsoft Windows operating system); if the file is found, the computer is deemed to be infected unless it is deleted. In reality the file is one required by the operating system for correct functioning of the computer.
- A hoax of exposure is a semi-comical or private sting operation. They usually encourage people to act foolishly or credulously by falling for patent nonsense that the hoaxer deliberately presents as reality. A related activity is culture jamming.
The essential characteristic of a hoax is that it convey information that is, although false, at least somewhat credible. The subjective intent of hoax perpetrators varies, with the intent determining the content the perpetrator chooses and/or the content affecting the perpetrator's intent regarding whom to deceive: A person seeking to deceive the public as a whole may propagate a hoax consisting entirely of objectively credible claims, often bolstering it by including claims that are true or have a basis in fact. A person seeking to deceive only a specific person or set of persons (as by means of a practical joke) will likely select a premise that is subjectively plausible in the eyes of the victim(s), treating whether others will fall for the hoax as a secondary concern. Treated as such, the hoax's objective or intersubjective plausibility or implausibility can cut both ways: On one hand, a person may construct a hoax out of only credible information in order to prevent sympathetic outsiders from "catching on" and informing the victim in advance; on the other, he or she may include implausible information in order to heighten the victim's eventual embarrassment at having "fallen for" the hoax (along with the enjoyment observers feel when watching the victim being deceived).
Some sets of claims popularly labeled hoaxes are better categorized as allegory, fable, satire, or parody: If a person describes a situation or event with the intent to illustrate a principle but without the desire that his audience believe his assertions' literal meaning to be true, the assertions likely form an allegory or a fable. (Note that these claims may eventually develop into an apocryphal hoax or an urban legend if their literal meaning gains belief as they are passed from person to person.) If a person makes statements that have some basis in fact but are in some respects patently absurd, with the intent that the audience notice the similarity between the patent absurdities in the statements and absurdities latent in statements widely accepted in the real world, the person engages in satire. Parody does not require any basis in fact or the intent that any part of it be accepted; rather, its essence is the partial but not total imitation of the thing parodied, along with the elicitation of humor from the simultaneous occurrence of similarities and differences between the parody and its subject.
3. Hoax traditions
During certain events and at particular times of year, hoaxes are perpetrated by many people and groups. The most famous of these is April Fool's Day.
4. See also
http://wapedia.mobi/en/HoaxTuesday 4 January 2011
Giant race 'came from mutant gene'
6th January 2011
A race of giants may have sprung from a mutant gene that first emerged around 1,500 years ago and causes uncontrolled body growth, scientists believe.
The "gigantism gene" was identified in the DNA of an 18th century man known as the "Irish Giant" who stood almost eight feet tall.
Copies of the same mutation have been found in living patients suffering from gigantism and other symptoms of over-growth.
Scientists writing in the New England Journal of Medicine said they suspect all inherited the gene from the same common ancestor who lived up to 66 generations ago. Around 200 to 300 people may be carrying the same mutation today.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20110106/tuk-giant-race-came-from-mutant-gene-f858358.html
6th January 2011
A race of giants may have sprung from a mutant gene that first emerged around 1,500 years ago and causes uncontrolled body growth, scientists believe.
The "gigantism gene" was identified in the DNA of an 18th century man known as the "Irish Giant" who stood almost eight feet tall.
Copies of the same mutation have been found in living patients suffering from gigantism and other symptoms of over-growth.
Scientists writing in the New England Journal of Medicine said they suspect all inherited the gene from the same common ancestor who lived up to 66 generations ago. Around 200 to 300 people may be carrying the same mutation today.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20110106/tuk-giant-race-came-from-mutant-gene-f858358.html
Extracted from
Full article http://www.joannecrabtree.com/psychotherapyarts/innerMind/dissociationAndMemory.html
In the late 1960's a new wrinkle on dissociation and memory was introduced. It was the discovery of "state-dependent" effects in human beings. The notion, briefly stated, is that when people learn information, undergo an experience, or develop a skill in a specific state of consciousness, they can recall that information, reclaim that experience, or exercise that skill most easily when the original state of consciousness is re-establish. The earliest experiments in this area investigated the effects of certain drugs on memory in animals (Overton 1964, 1968). These were followed by investigations of the effects of alcohol or barbiturate intoxication on human memory (e.g., Goodwin et al. 1969 and Eich 1977). The results proved the old saw that if a person when sober could not remember where he put his keys when drunk, the best way to get the memory back was to get drunk again.
Roland Fischer, a pioneer in this field of investigation (Fischer et al., 1970, Fischer and Landon 1972, Fischer 1976, 1977), attempted to place our understanding of state-bound memory in a framework that takes into account both context and a spectrum of psycho-physical arousal, ranging from hypo- to hyper-arousal (Fischer 1971). He speculated that the more discontinuous the states of arousal, the less ability to retrieve a memory in one state of an event in another. In 1971 Fischer stated: "The implications of this amnesia between disparate levels of arousal for criminology, jurisprudence and psychotherapy have not yet been realized" (Fischer 1971, p. 33); that statement seems to be quite valid yet today.
The implications of the notion of state-dependent learning and state-dependent memory are vast. It can be said that for all people, the so-called normal and the disordered, memories are attached to specific states of consciousness and gaining access to memories depends on returning to the proper state of consciousness.
Memory as state-dependent serves as an experimental model for verifying the understanding of dissociation and memory of Janet. It also confirms the notion that "amnesia" or "forgetting" are misleading concepts to use in attempting to describe dissociative experience, and points instead to dissociation as a partitioned assimilation of information and experiences.
So this is what is comes down to: dissociation, normal and disordered, is the partitioned assimilation of information and experiences. And memory is the retrieval of information and experiences by returning to the compartment into which they were assimilated. There is no "forgetting" followed by "remembering." Instead we move from state of consciousness to state of consciousness and retrieve information or experiential data with greater or less efficiency, depending on the "disparity" of the present state from that in which the information was obtained or the experience was undergone. If the disparity is too great, retrieval will fail.
http://www.joannecrabtree.com/psychotherapyarts/innerMind/dissociationAndMemory.html
DISSOCIATION AND MEMORY: A TWO-HUNDRED YEAR PERSPECTIVE
by Adam CrabtreeFull article http://www.joannecrabtree.com/psychotherapyarts/innerMind/dissociationAndMemory.html
A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO DISSOCIATION
In the late 1960's a new wrinkle on dissociation and memory was introduced. It was the discovery of "state-dependent" effects in human beings. The notion, briefly stated, is that when people learn information, undergo an experience, or develop a skill in a specific state of consciousness, they can recall that information, reclaim that experience, or exercise that skill most easily when the original state of consciousness is re-establish. The earliest experiments in this area investigated the effects of certain drugs on memory in animals (Overton 1964, 1968). These were followed by investigations of the effects of alcohol or barbiturate intoxication on human memory (e.g., Goodwin et al. 1969 and Eich 1977). The results proved the old saw that if a person when sober could not remember where he put his keys when drunk, the best way to get the memory back was to get drunk again.
Roland Fischer, a pioneer in this field of investigation (Fischer et al., 1970, Fischer and Landon 1972, Fischer 1976, 1977), attempted to place our understanding of state-bound memory in a framework that takes into account both context and a spectrum of psycho-physical arousal, ranging from hypo- to hyper-arousal (Fischer 1971). He speculated that the more discontinuous the states of arousal, the less ability to retrieve a memory in one state of an event in another. In 1971 Fischer stated: "The implications of this amnesia between disparate levels of arousal for criminology, jurisprudence and psychotherapy have not yet been realized" (Fischer 1971, p. 33); that statement seems to be quite valid yet today.
The implications of the notion of state-dependent learning and state-dependent memory are vast. It can be said that for all people, the so-called normal and the disordered, memories are attached to specific states of consciousness and gaining access to memories depends on returning to the proper state of consciousness.
Memory as state-dependent serves as an experimental model for verifying the understanding of dissociation and memory of Janet. It also confirms the notion that "amnesia" or "forgetting" are misleading concepts to use in attempting to describe dissociative experience, and points instead to dissociation as a partitioned assimilation of information and experiences.
So this is what is comes down to: dissociation, normal and disordered, is the partitioned assimilation of information and experiences. And memory is the retrieval of information and experiences by returning to the compartment into which they were assimilated. There is no "forgetting" followed by "remembering." Instead we move from state of consciousness to state of consciousness and retrieve information or experiential data with greater or less efficiency, depending on the "disparity" of the present state from that in which the information was obtained or the experience was undergone. If the disparity is too great, retrieval will fail.
http://www.joannecrabtree.com/psychotherapyarts/innerMind/dissociationAndMemory.html
Dissociation & Dissociative Identity Disorder
History of Dissociation
Dissociation has long been somewhat of an intrigue to clinicians and the general public. In the United States, as far back as 1860 (i.e., the case of Mary Reynolds), cases have been reported in which clients experienced state specific dissociative disorders. It was in the mid 1970's however, that clinicians began recognizing considerable numbers of clients with symptoms of dissociation that resembled Dissociative Identity Disorder (previously known as Multiple Personality Disorder.) At that time it was estimated that the prevalence of the disorder was about one in a thousand.
In the mid-eighties, the number of clients with Dissociative Identity Disorder in treatment began to increase. There has been a great deal of speculation offered as explanation. One thought is that as clinicians become more aware of the disorder and its symptoms, the more able they are to detect and treat it. Others believe that DID has been over diagnosed, especially with those clients who are highly suggestible. Dissociative Identity Disorder is diagnosed up to nine times more often in females than in males. It wasn’t until the 1970's, when the women’s movement began to bring child abuse issues to public awareness that clinicians became open to the idea of a trauma induced disorder. DID has been shown to have a strong link to severe trauma, especially sexual and physical childhood abuse.
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- What is Dissociation?
- The essential feature of a Dissociative Disorder is a disruption in the usually integrated functions of consciousness, memory, identity, or perception of the environment. The disturbance may be sudden or gradual, transient or chronic. In other words, an event is processed in a way that breaks up the pieces of the event into differing states of consciousness. Dissociation is common and nearly everyone experiences mild dissociation from time to time. If you have ever had the experience of driving somewhere, and suddenly you realize that you have little or no memory of driving the last few minutes. Perhaps you even passed your exit. Your driving ability wasn't hindered because the mind was still utilizing the part of the brain that was needed to drive the car. However, instead of your thinking-mind focusing on the driving, it was somewhere else. That is dissociation. Daydreaming is a very mild form of dissociation. On the other end of the dissociation-continuum, dissociation is often a way for the brain to tear apart the sensations, or the memory of a traumatic event in order to survive the situation with as little damage as possible. For instance, the actual memory might be put so far back in the subconscious mind, that it is perceived as being forgotten. However, the body sensations may still be present and may be experienced from time to time as somatic eruptions, body memories. The feelings related to the trauma may be "switched off," generally taking with it the individuals ability to experience other feelings later in life. http://www.psych-net.com/dissociation.html
Of all people who have ever lived, if anyone has ever traveled into the future, it would have had to have been Leonardo Da Vinci, the brilliant visionary and inventor from the 16th Century
Perhaps artists are the best people to ask about time travel - many have reported a feeling of time being altered or suspended when they become absorbed in their creative activities. Some report that what felt like a matter of 2-3 hours really turned out to be 8-10. Where were they during those missing hours? In another dimension of space/time? This type of time suspension experience has led many to question the mysterious nature of consciousness as it relates to time.
In his book "Time-A Travelers Guide," time travel expert Clifford Pickover states the brain is indeed a time machine, "Voluntary motions are not initiated by our conscious minds, and the brain does seem to have a time machine for antedating perceptions." Pickover's statements are based on numerous physiological experiments conducted and then published within scientific circles in a paper entitled, "Time and the Observer: the Where and When of Consciousness in the Brain," by Daniel Dennett and Marcel Kinsbourne.
In his book "Time-A Travelers Guide," time travel expert Clifford Pickover states the brain is indeed a time machine, "Voluntary motions are not initiated by our conscious minds, and the brain does seem to have a time machine for antedating perceptions." Pickover's statements are based on numerous physiological experiments conducted and then published within scientific circles in a paper entitled, "Time and the Observer: the Where and When of Consciousness in the Brain," by Daniel Dennett and Marcel Kinsbourne.
According to Pickover, the results of these studies show that the brain projects mental events backwards in time in strange ways, "these studies show that the time line experienced by your conscious brain is often quite different from the objective time line of events occurring in your brain or in real life. In short, the time lines do not register and can develop kinks and order differences relative to another." So what does this misalignment of time lines mean? Pickover believes it should stimulate fascinating adventures and experiments in consciousness in the 21st Century.
Mental Time Travel Exercise
Mental Time Travel Exercise
Here's a simple time traveler experiment you can perform each night before you fall asleep. Place yourself in a space and time where you can remember yourself being happy and carefree - perhaps one of the brightest moments in your life. Now, as you recall the environment first, and then the faces and circumstances surrounding the time frame, connect with the feeling you had. Feeling is the key to placing yourself back in a certain time of your life. Without being able to feel your emotions back then, it is merely nothing but a two-dimensional picture in your mind. This is a form of mental time travel, and if you connected with your true feelings then, you are officially initiated as having traveled back, using your brain/mind to enter into another time period to reexperience what you felt surrounding an event. After you feel comfortable with travel back into your own past, you can branch out using your imagination to reexperience events in history you have always longed to witness. Perhaps you will be able to penetrate some mysterious time warp field allowing your consciousness to breakthrough into a different time, past or future.
Keep Track of Your Internal Time Clock
If you want to get in tune with your own internal time clock, keep a journal handy and record those times when you felt time went by faster than you expected, and the circumstances surrounding this occurrences. Begin to note a pattern in what triggers time suspension in your life and note whatever impact it has, negative or positive, in your life.
Source Info
Time - A Traveler's Guide, Clifford Pickover
Oxford University Press, Inc 1998
http://www.brainchannels.com/Memory/timetravel/timetravel3.html
Does Mayan calendar really end in 2012?
It's a good news/bad news situation for believers in the 2012 Mayan apocalypse. The good news is that the Mayan "Long Count" calendar may not end on Dec. 21, 2012 (and, by extension, the world may not end along with it). The bad news for prophecy believers? If the calendar doesn't end in December 2012, no one knows when it actually will - or if it has already.
A new critique, published as a chapter in the new textbook "Calendars and Years II: Astronomy and Time in the Ancient and Medieval World" (Oxbow Books, 2010), argues that the accepted conversions of dates from Mayan to the modern calendar may be off by as much as 50 or 100 years. That would throw the supposed and overhyped 2012 apocalypse off by decades and cast into doubt the dates of historical Mayan events. (The doomsday worries are based on the fact that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, much as our year ends on Dec. 31.)
The Mayan calendar was converted to today's Gregorian calendar using a calculation called the GMT constant, named for the last initials of three early Mayanist researchers. Much of the work emphasized dates recovered from colonial documents that were written in the Mayan language in the Latin alphabet, according to the chapter's author, Gerardo Aldana, University of California, Santa Barbara professor of Chicana and Chicano Studies.
Later, the GMT constant was bolstered by American linguist and anthropologist Floyd Lounsbury, who used data in the Dresden Codex Venus Table, a Mayan calendar and almanac that charts dates relative to the movements of Venus.
"He took the position that his work removed the last obstacle to fully accepting the GMT constant," Aldana said in a statement. "Others took his work even further, suggesting that he had proven the GMT constant to be correct."
But according to Aldana, Lounsbury's evidence is far from irrefutable.
"If the Venus Table cannot be used to prove the FMT as Lounsbury suggests, its acceptance depends on the reliability of the corroborating data," he said. That historical data, he said, is less reliable than the Table itself, causing the argument for the GMT constant to fall "like a stack of cards."
Aldana doesn't have any answers as to what the correct calendar conversion might be, preferring to focus on why the current interpretation may be wrong. Looks like end-of-the-world theorists may need to find another ancient calendar on which to pin their apocalyptic hopes.
By Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience.com
http://www.phenomenica.com/2010/10/does-mayan-calendar-really-end-in-2012.html
Global News Journal
Beyond the World news headlines
Perilous predictions for 2011
It’s the season to be merry – and to make forecasts about next year. Across the finance industry fine minds spend December crafting outlooks and extrapolations about how the world will fare, in the hope of a decent return over the next 12 months and avoiding the bear traps that will swallow an investment. The banks, strategic advisories and political risk consultants trumpet their analytical prowess, of course, but are also meeting a natural human need to peer into the future. We all want guidance to take the sting out of living in an uncertain world.. . . . . . . . . . . .
Reuters tries to gauge political risks with appropriate cautions in mind. We reckon it is possible to use our expertise to diminish surprise and anticipate both dangers and opportunities. How well do we do? Our 2010 outlook focused on sovereign debt default, a hung parliament in Britain and tension between China and the United States. Those were borne out, unlike our prediction that Kevin Rudd would easily be re-elected in Australia. (He was ousted in a party coup in June and his successor Julia Gillard scraped into power). For comparison’s sake look at the 2010 predictions from Eurasia.
With trepidation therefore, here’s my pick of countries, issues and threats that will pothole the road to prosperity in 2011. We’ll publish a fuller outlook soon and I’ll link to it when it’s out.
1) Washington versus Beijing. This is top of many people’s lists and has been a ‘global risk’ for the last couple of years. But being familiar doesn’t disqualify it. Trade rows, competitive currency weakness, gunboats on the South China seas, regional grandstanding, economic rivalry, and diplomatic divergence over North Korea and Iran make the headlines, but the uneasy relationship between the world’s no 1 and no 2 economic powers drives numerous other issues. The Economist says the pair have moved into an era of ‘strategic mistrust’. Watch the body language of President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States in January for a harbinger of the tone for the year.
2) The countries of old men. Watch for disturbance in countries with elderly rulers and no visible succession plan. Egypt’s Mubarak is 82 and has had health problems. His son waits in the wings, but is no certainty to succeed his father. The Saudi gerontocracy may be tested by the death of King Abdullah, with concerns over how foreign and oil policy might be affected by conservative Interior Minister Prince Nayef winning the throne. What truth is there in WikiLeak-ed reports that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has terminal cancer and what impact would his death have on bubbling internal power struggles? While 83-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej is revered by Thais, his son does not have the same support in deeply-divided Thailand. Will we see a return of massive red-shirt protests and the kind of bloody showdown that killed dozens in Bangkok in May?
3) The unquantifiable but ugly. What’s the chance of an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities to slow Tehran’s progress towards atomic weapon capability? It’s a probability of somewhere between zero and 100 percent (and I just met my definition of a prediction that is correct but uninformative). What can be said with certainty is that the economic impact of Israeli action would be enormous initially, which means this risk can’t be ignored. Nor can it really be measured, unfortunately. What else should we worry about in the Middle East? My smart colleagues there reckon there is only a remote chance of a return to violent Intifada due to the dead-end state of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. I hope they are right. Elsewhere, Lebanon’s Hezbollah is not seen as wanting to strike the Israeli north, nor is sectarian violence expected to resurrect itself in Iraq. Let’s hope both are true. Watch for Yemen, a failing state that has involuntarily exported trouble across its land border to Saudi Arabia and to the United States via airborne bombs.
4) It’s the economy, stupid. Successful political management of Western economies is as challenging as ever with growth uneven, debt levels high and austerity the watchword. Politicians know it is hard to do the right thing and still get elected. Watch for wavering in the face of protest, and tactical moves on reforms that are necessary but electorally costly. It’s all a question of timing. Britain’s coalition government is playing a long game, knowing it can impose painful cuts now and not face the public until 2015. Politicians in Ireland are not so lucky, but the Fine Gael/Labour victors of next year’s election will not fundamentally be able to ease the budget pain. Italy will likely drift into early elections with its deep-rooted debt problems un-tackled. Spain, whose politicians are mindful a general election must be held by March 2012, had to be cajoled into budget cuts, labour law reforms and asset sales by markets pushing its debt costs higher. Generally the timing does not work for the euro zone’s peripheral economies, which just can’t cut their spending and fire up tax-generating growth quickly enough to climb out of their fiscal holes. While the threat of sovereign default has eased, it is only political will in the zone’s larger countries, mainly Germany, which keeps the periphery from insolvency. That makes for political uncertainty.
5) Dogs that don’t bark. Street violence is visible, noisy and alarming, but does it change anything? There will be anti-austerity protests in Europe but our best guess is that violence will be contained, governments will not fall and fiscal reforms will haltingly continue. Much of the developed world is facing up to a real decline in living standards as the social contracts installed after World War Two fray under the weight of unfulfillable pension promises and national indebtedness. That makes for an angrily discordant tone to political discourse, with screechiness at its most ear-splitting in the United States, where the Tea Party has assailed the political establishment. The TPs lose their status as rebel outsiders in January when those of them elected in the Republican victory in the mid-terms take their seats in Congress. The tone might not change but the practicalities of governing in cohabitation will make sullying compromise inevitable.
6) Pre-election posturing. Almost as distorting for policy-making as a looming election is the prospect of a looming election. Watch for gesture politics and jockeying for position in France. Sarkozy has to resurrect his political standing hurt by confrontations with unions over pension reform if he is to win re-election in March 2012. Intriguingly the biggest impact might be outside France. Sarkozy will be trying to reform the global monetary system while at the helm of the G20 presidency to win electoral credit at home. Will Washington agree to a diminished role for the dollar in international finance? President Barack Obama has to find a way to create jobs and stimulate domestic demand, with a gridlocked Congress and mounting concern over trillion dollar deficits and debt mountains standing in his way. And he’ll be starting his campaign for re-election too. Most U.S. media attention will be on the early rounds of the dogfight over the Republican nomination. Russia, too, will be watching to see which of Putin and Medvedev runs for the presidency in 2012. The assumption is that the role is there for the taking for Putin, now prime minister, should he decide to return to his old position but watch for Kremlin intrigue revealing itself in unusual ways. While not strictly within our definition, China is also preparing for a leadership shift, with Xi Jinping set to succeed Hu Jintao as president towards the end of 2012 or in early 2013. To ensure the transition is smooth and happens against a stable economic background watch for measures to balance export-led growth with domestic demand and a shift to a more market-based currency regime. And no tolerance for dissent.
7) Big country. Every country has its risks. At least the ones at home you can gauge for yourself. But if a Western investor wants a decent return he or she must venture abroad. Is anywhere safe? Try Turkey, where the ruling AKP under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan will likely win a third-term in an election that must happen by July 2011 and the broad course of pro-growth reforms should stay on track. Somewhere for the cautious to avoid – Sudan, where the January referendum may break Africa’s largest country by land mass into two. It will be hard work to avoid war, with devastating humanitarian consequences and an economic cost of $100 billion to the wider region, according to estimates. And here’s one you can’t avoid – Nigeria goes to the polls in April, and if levels of voter intimidation and ballot stuffing reach the levels of previous elections watch for widespread unrest. If President Goodluck Jonathan’s bid to hold onto power is perceived to be unfairly thwarted watch for a return to violent militancy in the oil-producing Niger Delta region. That would have an impact on oil supplies and potentially the price you pay for petrol at the pump.
8.The big bang. North Korea looks the likeliest place to spark a major regional crisis. Putting a percentage on its likelihood is again impossible, but we can say it is more likely in 2011 than in 2010. With ruler Kim Jong-il appearing to bolster his son and appointed successor Kim Jong-un’s stature through sabre-rattling the potential for cross-border clashes with the South has risen. Recent revelations of advanced uranium enrichment facilities in the north have enhanced Pyongyang’s nuclear stature, boosting its bargaining power as it seeks to stave off regime-ending economic collapse. Implosion in the North is more likely than war. Both are possible. Either would have vast economic and human consequences.
9) The little bang. Terrorism and the mutating threat from al Qaeda and its sympathisers have not gone away in the last decade and need to stay on the list of dangers, although near the bottom. Sweden just suffered the first fatal bombing by a suspected Islamist militant in Europe since 2007 but the gap between attacks is not seen as cause for satisfaction by security services. Attackers keep probing for weak spots in security (the recent Yemen printer cartridge bombs, for instance) and the continued large Western military presence in Afghanistan feeds militant propaganda. While it is a lot harder to launch a 9/11 spectacular, don’t rule out a successful attack on a civilian airliner at some point. Consequences of that would again be unpredictable.
10) Byte-sized problems. The Stuxnet virus, WikiLeak revelations, subsequent hack-backs on those who tried to shut it down, China-based attacks on Google and the use of social media to “out” information that was legally locked down showed the power of computer and Internet-based transmission mechanisms to disrupt social and political norms in 2010. It doesn’t amount to cyber-warfare as some doom-sayers would have it, or the brave new world of limitless information freedom that Internet zealots promise. It does represent an assault on privacy as we used to know it, a huge cost for business to protect itself and an intriguing new element to black ops espionage. Plus a redefinition of what it means to be friends with someone.
http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2010/12/16/perilous-predictions-for-2011/
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